Memphis has had 5 days consecutive of 100 in this summer so far which is in the top 10 but falls well below the three benchmarks above. It will likely depend on soil moisture and the latent evapotranspiration from this morning's rainfall.Ģ) Extended period of 100+ temps. Whether we challenge even higher remains to be seen, but it can't be ruled out. It certainly feels possible that a 104-105 type max is well within reach for Memphis over the next two weeks. 20 actually featured 104+ temps at Memphis but these were within brief though intense heat waves. The heat waves above had a few to several days where temps approached or exceeded 105. While it has been 100 many times this summer.Memphis has yet to record a high temp of 104 or higher. Low-level jet starts to veer more westerly as the main wave shiftsĮast.The benchmark heat waves of 1980/2000/2007 had a couple of things this summer has yet to achieve.but the key word here is yet as it might be tested in the weeks to come.ġ) Extreme high temps. Shown by forecast soundings during the late afternoon into theĮvening hours as surface flow remains south-southwest, while the However, at least slightly greater low-level turning is Keep low-level directional shear limited during the first half of
Likely region for pre-frontal supercell development will be fromĮastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and possibly southern Tennessee Threat for significant to potentially intense tornadoes. Any strong supercells whichĬan develop in the open warm sector will likely have the greatest With pre-frontal convection for the last several days, whichĬontinues through the latest 00Z run. Most guidance hints at the potential for some warm sector supercellĭevelopment across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee If we ride relatively quiet most of the day, don't let your guard down as we approach sunset for MS/AL/TN/GA. I think there's strong/long-track type potential, but it's not going to be the glaringly obvious heat of the day event when the surface low is in east Missouri and the lead 500mb jet streak is moving by. This makes me think this may ride along as a sleeper event for much of the day, and then it catch everyone off guard with a few nasty supercells from the eastern half of MS, riding across the northern 2/3 of AL and up into the southern 1/3 or so of middle TN. set up ahead of the prefrontal trough and the convection along it going from sunset into the overnight. We suddenly start getting significant instability (maybe even CAPE over 1000-1200) and mid/upper 60 dewpoints, juxtaposed with increasing lift and still very strong shear. and in the middle of all that, 500mb temperatures start dropping as that lead impulse moves north and the second mid-level impulse noses in from the west. As that happens, large scale ascent has weakened or broken the cap, dewpoints are surging back into the upper 60s toward sunset, heights are falling as the dynamics move in. Pressure falls ahead of it keep the low-level flow backed and keep the 850mb jet strong and not as veered. However, late in the day, the prefrontal trough/front approaches from the northwest. That makes me believe much of the day may underperform, and it may lull people into a false sense of security, especially with the surface low moving off to the northeast by sunset. Your lapse rates aren't as steep and the instability isn't as high because of that. The problem with that is, as you cool that layer, you decrease the temperature drop between 700mb and 500mb. It's so strong that forecast soundings have shown that even warming into the upper 70s to near 80 isn't enough to break it! It will take large scale ascent lifting that capping layer, cooling it, and weakening it in order for the cap to break.
We have steep mid-level lapse rates early in the day because that cap is really strong.
both at 500mb and from the EML-related cap roughly around 700mb. The main limiting factor, at least for a large part of the day, will be warm mid-level temps.
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